This is the week we find out how much depth you drafted. Injuries are starting to really pile up and the bye weeks are in full effect. One starts doing crazy lineup moves; starting 3 players from one team at the same time. Players you had never heard of 5 weeks ago suddenly become must starts. This is when seperation begins to happen between those who drafted well and those who got good and Miller Genuine Drafted on selection night.
Just like everyone else, I'm looking at a poor lineup, but not all entirely my fault. Jay Cutler still has headaches after last week and fantasy-bust turned fantasy-stud Darren McFadden is once again injured. My plan was to start Marshaw Lynch, who had a very favorable match up against the less-than-rad Jacksonville defense. BUT...Trade city baby. Now he's resting peacefully in Queen Anne, waiting to make his debut with the Seahawks next week. This move will pay off in the long run and makes me glad I didn't trade the former Cal product for nothing. But crap, it hurts this week. So I'm rolling with 3 Super Chargers against the Raiders. Now Gates is a must start. He single handedly won me my game last week (oh yeah, I won again to move my record in my primary league to 4-0. Additionally, I've moved to 11-1 across all my leagues. I don't know what happened to me. Did I get smarter this year? I guess. I have, however, drafted a stellar virtual defense, one of the most important aspects of fantasy sports) and looks unstoppable. I'm also starting Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert. Could be genius, could be the dumbest move YTD. Good thing the Raider run defense sucks and they can't stop the TE position. One good thing for me is that my foe this week, the ridiculously awesome Colon Meals, has been just ravaged by injury. He's got Peyton Manning, but I think I have a chance.
It's time to really start rolling with match ups. I'm not saying sit a stud like Adrian Peterson just because he's going against the Jets, but start looking at bye week replacement match ups. Sam Bradford and Shaun Hill look like pretty good starts this week; one would not have said that 4 weeks ago. Peyton Hillis? Start him baby. Mike Bell? Chris Ivory? BenJarvus Green-Ellis? (not this week, bye). Even LeGarrette Blount? All players you are happy you took a flier on during your draft or picked up off waivers. It's all about depth right now. About week 10 or 11 is the time to start trading off your depth for studs, but right now you need to ride guys like Mark Sanchez, Nate Washington, and even old Roy Williams.
Friday, October 8, 2010
Friday, October 1, 2010
Starting to Look Like a Liar
Success and fantasy football have never, and I mean NEVER, been words that have been used consecutively to describe my fantasy career. I draft bad. I trade bad. I make bad free agent pickups. I've been the punchline of so many jokes within my league it can't be tracked. To chronicle my misadventures through this season I started this column. It was going to be a way for me to vent my frustrations, anger, depression, anxiety, and general upset-ness with this stupid exercise in failure I gladly participate in every single year. I drafted Michael Turner and Ryan Matthews, so naturally their legs should have been broken by now (actually, Ryan Matthews almost came through for me with the "high ankle sprain" that seems to not be a "high ankle sprain"). But….
My teams are actually good. Go figure. I play in 3 leagues and my combined record is 8-1. I'm 3-0 in my primary league, and I don't know how to handle all this success. I'm looking to make trades just for the sake of making a trade. I know I should just sit tight and ride the wave, but I'm not used to that. I'm not used to any of this. But I like it. I'll take it. I'm sure this week will bring me a loss. I'm certain Jay Cutler will start throwing to the other team, that my kicker will put up a big fat 0, that both my WR's will get 2 catches for 14 yards total. It will happen, it's not a matter of if, just a matter of when. In the meantime, I'm just going to role with the success. Enjoy it and talk smack.
But to be honest, I think my good fortune this year, it's more a function of luck. Now, I believe that there is (generally) no such thing as luck. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. If you prepare, and then get a chance, good things will happen. BUT, when fantasy football is concerned, luck, pure unadulterated luck, is the factor for success. Sure, you have to draft a good team and make the right lineup decisions from week to week, but everything else out of your control. Injuries, crazy coaches (uh, Todd Haley, if you know what is good for you, give Jamaal Charles ALL of the carries) and fluky plays can make or break your Sunday. Check that, your whole week. And I won't even get in to the schedule, or Virtual Defense (VD), one needs to "draft" to have a winning week (see prior entry). Lucky is the name of the game in fantasy football.
Role with your big names this week regardless of match-ups. I know Calvin Johnson has a bad look. You have to keep him active. Ray Rice has a bad matchup plus a banged up knee; you drafted him high for a reason. He's freaking good. If he's healthy and starting, how can you bench him? MJD has been garbage. Tell me your benching him. I'll trade you Darren McFadden for him straight up. I'd rather lose with my studs than go down with a bunch of bench scrubs.
Best of luck to everyone this week, except CHAAAAD.
My teams are actually good. Go figure. I play in 3 leagues and my combined record is 8-1. I'm 3-0 in my primary league, and I don't know how to handle all this success. I'm looking to make trades just for the sake of making a trade. I know I should just sit tight and ride the wave, but I'm not used to that. I'm not used to any of this. But I like it. I'll take it. I'm sure this week will bring me a loss. I'm certain Jay Cutler will start throwing to the other team, that my kicker will put up a big fat 0, that both my WR's will get 2 catches for 14 yards total. It will happen, it's not a matter of if, just a matter of when. In the meantime, I'm just going to role with the success. Enjoy it and talk smack.
But to be honest, I think my good fortune this year, it's more a function of luck. Now, I believe that there is (generally) no such thing as luck. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. If you prepare, and then get a chance, good things will happen. BUT, when fantasy football is concerned, luck, pure unadulterated luck, is the factor for success. Sure, you have to draft a good team and make the right lineup decisions from week to week, but everything else out of your control. Injuries, crazy coaches (uh, Todd Haley, if you know what is good for you, give Jamaal Charles ALL of the carries) and fluky plays can make or break your Sunday. Check that, your whole week. And I won't even get in to the schedule, or Virtual Defense (VD), one needs to "draft" to have a winning week (see prior entry). Lucky is the name of the game in fantasy football.
Role with your big names this week regardless of match-ups. I know Calvin Johnson has a bad look. You have to keep him active. Ray Rice has a bad matchup plus a banged up knee; you drafted him high for a reason. He's freaking good. If he's healthy and starting, how can you bench him? MJD has been garbage. Tell me your benching him. I'll trade you Darren McFadden for him straight up. I'd rather lose with my studs than go down with a bunch of bench scrubs.
Best of luck to everyone this week, except CHAAAAD.
Saturday, September 25, 2010
The High Ankle Sprain (A Fantasy Curse-Word)
There may not be a more non-descript injury than the dreaded "high ankle sprain" (HAS) in all of football. What does it mean? I know what what it is in medical terms, but how it translates to a player is a totally different story. It could take a player out for a week, 3 weeks, or the whole season. Michael Turner had one last year, and it pretty much took him out of relevance for the last 6 weeks of the year. Julius Jones pulled the high ankle sprain in 2005 and, save for a couple of spurts over the past 5 years, has been nothing but a pedestrian NFL running back. How quickly a player recovers from this injury is totally dependent on the players ability to heal and their ability to withstand pain. TO had one in the Eagles Superbowl year, and came back to play, and play well, just a couple weeks after sustaining it. But he's a freak of nature. For fantasy football players, seeing the guy you drafted highly come down with the HAS has to be one of the most disheartening moments we can live through (in our fantasy lives, which dominates my real life). At least when an ACL get's blown out, you know that player is DONE. The HAS leaves hope, albeit false hope, that your guy will be back shortly and return to the guy you drafted so highly.
Ryan Matthews owners, I hope you picked up Mike Tolbert; I just don't think the kid will be back anytime soon. The Chargers are going to be extra careful with their top draft choice and I'd be shocked if he plays anytime soon.
The only thing worse than the HAS *might* be when a coach comes out and says a player "tweaked" something. Tweaked? Thanks for the hard hitting medical analysis.
Top Starts for This Week You May Not Consider:
1. Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS. St. Louis is weak. He's actually not half bad this year. If you don't have a stud QB (P. Manning, Rodgers, Brees) you could do worse (Flacco, Favre).
2. Matt Forte, RB, CHI. This game against GB is poised for a shootout. Forte is starting to look like a mini-Marshall Faulk. I'd get him in.
3. Darren McFadden, RB, OAK. Despite Michael Bush coming back this week, Run DMC is starting to look like the old Run DMC the Raiders drafted 4th overall in 2008. After what Jason Snelling did to the Cardinals last week, you have to get McFadden in there.
4. Jahivd Best, RB, DET. I know, he's the top fantasy producer YTD. But I've seen a lot of people benching him because of his matchup with Minnesota. Don't do it. He's talented AND has great football sense. Keep him active. The cream always rises to the top.
5. Correll Buckhalter, RB, DEN. If you've been living in a cave you may not have heard that Knowshon Moreno is out this week (first reported as a "tweak"; thanks Dr. Josh McDaniels) against the Colts, and the Colts couldn't stop me or my grandma in the running game. Get him active if you have him.
Best of luck to everyone, except PLOWWWWMAN this week.
Ryan Matthews owners, I hope you picked up Mike Tolbert; I just don't think the kid will be back anytime soon. The Chargers are going to be extra careful with their top draft choice and I'd be shocked if he plays anytime soon.
The only thing worse than the HAS *might* be when a coach comes out and says a player "tweaked" something. Tweaked? Thanks for the hard hitting medical analysis.
Top Starts for This Week You May Not Consider:
1. Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS. St. Louis is weak. He's actually not half bad this year. If you don't have a stud QB (P. Manning, Rodgers, Brees) you could do worse (Flacco, Favre).
2. Matt Forte, RB, CHI. This game against GB is poised for a shootout. Forte is starting to look like a mini-Marshall Faulk. I'd get him in.
3. Darren McFadden, RB, OAK. Despite Michael Bush coming back this week, Run DMC is starting to look like the old Run DMC the Raiders drafted 4th overall in 2008. After what Jason Snelling did to the Cardinals last week, you have to get McFadden in there.
4. Jahivd Best, RB, DET. I know, he's the top fantasy producer YTD. But I've seen a lot of people benching him because of his matchup with Minnesota. Don't do it. He's talented AND has great football sense. Keep him active. The cream always rises to the top.
5. Correll Buckhalter, RB, DEN. If you've been living in a cave you may not have heard that Knowshon Moreno is out this week (first reported as a "tweak"; thanks Dr. Josh McDaniels) against the Colts, and the Colts couldn't stop me or my grandma in the running game. Get him active if you have him.
Best of luck to everyone, except PLOWWWWMAN this week.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Almost the Typical Disaster
This was close. Really close. Week 2 of this young NFL season nearly bestowed upon me the typical disaster that has marked my 10+ years of fantasy football.
Sunday started off great. It was a thing of beauty, watching Michael Turner destroy the Arizona defense. 75 yards on only 9 carries. Are you kidding me? I was looking at putting up near triple digits. My man, Jay Cutler, was carving up the Cowboys, I had Antonio Gates and Ryan Matthews in the afternoon. It was gonna be a good, good day.
Then it stopped. Turner stopped getting the ball. All I saw was Jason Snelling, Snelling, Snelling to the tune of 186 total yards and 3 TD's. Panic set in. I began checking twitter constantly, looking for an update. There it was: tightness in the groin. WHAT!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Here we go again.
Well, at least I still have rookie stud Ryan Matthews.
FAIL.
After getting over the shock of watching Jason Snelling take all my guys caries and touchdowns, I get word Matthews sprained his ankle and his return is questionable. I threw a towel at my TV. I think my wife was scared. Could this really be happening? The two guys I had to have this year, both hurt in week 2. I was still fantasy-cursed. In another league, the upstart and fantastic PFFL http://pffl2010.blogspot.com/ I left Jahvid Best and his 33 fantasy points on the bench. Things had gotten real ugly, real fast.
Well, that is how things usually work out for me. If it's inevitable, I might as well just enjoy it, right.
But something happened: a festivus, miracle if you will: I won my game. Narrowly, but I'll take it. Victories like this don't happen to me. I went 1-13 last year; the culture of winning is not something I'm used to. So I started thinking maybe my team is not so bad after all this year. 2-0 for the first time....ever, I think. Granted I had guys like Jay Cutler (stud), Antonio Gates (super stud), Jeremy Maclin (2 TD's in two weeks ain't bad), and Darren McFadden (surprisingly serviceable) helping pick up the slack. In fact, looking at the big picture I went 2-1 across my fantasy landscape, and ended the weekend a combined 5-1 in all leagues combined. Perhaps I've learned from all my losing over the past few years. Or it could be one of the most important aspects of fantasy sports was on my side: the schedule.
I'll argue the most important aspect of a fantasy season is your match-up's. Sure, you need to draft a decent team, based on projections and a crystal ball. But a "virtual defense" is so important, yet the most difficult position to draft (because you can't). This week I faced Tom Brady as he faced the Jets. Yes he had a couple scores, but it was nothing like the week before where he went off against the Bengals. Had he duplicated the performance, I'd be singing a very different tune. Over the past few years, I've routinely lead the league in "most points against", not a stat you want to lead a league in. Chris Johnson vs. the Raiders (21pts) is very different than Chris Johnson vs. the Steelers (2pts). A bad "virtual defense" can make you pull the trigger on bad trades, bad free agent pickups, and give you a bad disposition. Just remember, the "VD" is something you simply can't control; just make good, logical decisions and don't panic if your 0-2 because you were matched up with Arian Foster in week one then got Jahvid Best in week two. Make good trades, good free agent picks, and you should be fine.
The situation improved Monday as word came down that Turner and Matthews would both be fine for this Sunday. But....the injuries have started. Once you tweak an ankle or a groin, do things ever really get better without a couple weeks rest? I know these guys have access to some of the best medical care in the world, but the fact remains these guys aren't from Saturn and need time to heal, just like you and me.
I'm going to be adding a few things to the site. Look for Hot Free Agent recommendations and lists my projections for the upcoming week. Look at it this way: my track record is not great over the past few years, so you can think of it as a "list of players to avoid".
As we would say in 12W, Have A Nice Night!
Sunday started off great. It was a thing of beauty, watching Michael Turner destroy the Arizona defense. 75 yards on only 9 carries. Are you kidding me? I was looking at putting up near triple digits. My man, Jay Cutler, was carving up the Cowboys, I had Antonio Gates and Ryan Matthews in the afternoon. It was gonna be a good, good day.
Then it stopped. Turner stopped getting the ball. All I saw was Jason Snelling, Snelling, Snelling to the tune of 186 total yards and 3 TD's. Panic set in. I began checking twitter constantly, looking for an update. There it was: tightness in the groin. WHAT!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Here we go again.
Well, at least I still have rookie stud Ryan Matthews.
FAIL.
After getting over the shock of watching Jason Snelling take all my guys caries and touchdowns, I get word Matthews sprained his ankle and his return is questionable. I threw a towel at my TV. I think my wife was scared. Could this really be happening? The two guys I had to have this year, both hurt in week 2. I was still fantasy-cursed. In another league, the upstart and fantastic PFFL http://pffl2010.blogspot.com/ I left Jahvid Best and his 33 fantasy points on the bench. Things had gotten real ugly, real fast.
Well, that is how things usually work out for me. If it's inevitable, I might as well just enjoy it, right.
But something happened: a festivus, miracle if you will: I won my game. Narrowly, but I'll take it. Victories like this don't happen to me. I went 1-13 last year; the culture of winning is not something I'm used to. So I started thinking maybe my team is not so bad after all this year. 2-0 for the first time....ever, I think. Granted I had guys like Jay Cutler (stud), Antonio Gates (super stud), Jeremy Maclin (2 TD's in two weeks ain't bad), and Darren McFadden (surprisingly serviceable) helping pick up the slack. In fact, looking at the big picture I went 2-1 across my fantasy landscape, and ended the weekend a combined 5-1 in all leagues combined. Perhaps I've learned from all my losing over the past few years. Or it could be one of the most important aspects of fantasy sports was on my side: the schedule.
I'll argue the most important aspect of a fantasy season is your match-up's. Sure, you need to draft a decent team, based on projections and a crystal ball. But a "virtual defense" is so important, yet the most difficult position to draft (because you can't). This week I faced Tom Brady as he faced the Jets. Yes he had a couple scores, but it was nothing like the week before where he went off against the Bengals. Had he duplicated the performance, I'd be singing a very different tune. Over the past few years, I've routinely lead the league in "most points against", not a stat you want to lead a league in. Chris Johnson vs. the Raiders (21pts) is very different than Chris Johnson vs. the Steelers (2pts). A bad "virtual defense" can make you pull the trigger on bad trades, bad free agent pickups, and give you a bad disposition. Just remember, the "VD" is something you simply can't control; just make good, logical decisions and don't panic if your 0-2 because you were matched up with Arian Foster in week one then got Jahvid Best in week two. Make good trades, good free agent picks, and you should be fine.
The situation improved Monday as word came down that Turner and Matthews would both be fine for this Sunday. But....the injuries have started. Once you tweak an ankle or a groin, do things ever really get better without a couple weeks rest? I know these guys have access to some of the best medical care in the world, but the fact remains these guys aren't from Saturn and need time to heal, just like you and me.
I'm going to be adding a few things to the site. Look for Hot Free Agent recommendations and lists my projections for the upcoming week. Look at it this way: my track record is not great over the past few years, so you can think of it as a "list of players to avoid".
As we would say in 12W, Have A Nice Night!
Saturday, September 18, 2010
1st & 10
Welcome and thanks for checking this out. Fantasy sports players get a bad rap: nerdy basement dwellers and uber-stat geeks. Nothing could be further from the truth. I play with teachers, doctors, real estate moguls, and some of the smartest people I've ever met. Fantasy football is a wonderful thing, and I love it. I listen to radio shows all day discussing fantasy football, I read countless websites, pre-draft I buy more magazines than I can count, and obsess constantly over my RB-WR-TE flex position. I love it, eat it, breathe it.
I'm just not very good at it.
Actually, maybe I'm being too hard on myself. The past few season's I've had a hideous run of bad luck combined with mediocre drafts. 2006, I drafted Tom Brady in an auction style draft. Paid like 5 bucks. He was ok, but threw a couple picks in the final game of my fantasy season (week 14), thus I missed the playoffs. The next year he goes nuts and throws like 134 TD's. So come 2008 I decided I'm back on the Brady train. I paid $20 for him in my draft, which was the highest amount anyone paid for a QB. I was stoked. Decent draft otherwise, but Brady was my guy. First game that year also happened to be my birthday and I was fired up to sit around, watch Brady go nuts (playing the "Chefs" that day), and begin my quest to fantasy glory. Except Tom Brady died to me that day. Same thing with Matt (my boy, who I was sure was going to go for 3500 yards and 31 TD's in 2007) Leinart. Last year Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton, Carson Palmer, and Roy Williams all forgot how to play good football. I drafted all of them. Julius Jones blew up in Dallas in 2004. I got him in 2005. I routinely draft Lee Evans. It's like I'm addicted to him. He NEVER, EVER pans out. But I keep coming back (if only he played for the Patriots, ahhh). I could go on and on, but the point is in my 10 years in my primary league, I have a winning percentage of.... .363. Even the Tampa Bay Rays went to the World Series, when can I catch a break?
Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result each time. This year I prepared different, drafted different, and am taking a different approach to in-season moves. Call me crazy, but I have a feeling this year will be different.
I'll be posting my thoughts, reactions, predictions, complaints, and trash talk here, along with suggestions and tips. I know my stuff, things just haven't worked out.
I'm just not very good at it.
Actually, maybe I'm being too hard on myself. The past few season's I've had a hideous run of bad luck combined with mediocre drafts. 2006, I drafted Tom Brady in an auction style draft. Paid like 5 bucks. He was ok, but threw a couple picks in the final game of my fantasy season (week 14), thus I missed the playoffs. The next year he goes nuts and throws like 134 TD's. So come 2008 I decided I'm back on the Brady train. I paid $20 for him in my draft, which was the highest amount anyone paid for a QB. I was stoked. Decent draft otherwise, but Brady was my guy. First game that year also happened to be my birthday and I was fired up to sit around, watch Brady go nuts (playing the "Chefs" that day), and begin my quest to fantasy glory. Except Tom Brady died to me that day. Same thing with Matt (my boy, who I was sure was going to go for 3500 yards and 31 TD's in 2007) Leinart. Last year Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton, Carson Palmer, and Roy Williams all forgot how to play good football. I drafted all of them. Julius Jones blew up in Dallas in 2004. I got him in 2005. I routinely draft Lee Evans. It's like I'm addicted to him. He NEVER, EVER pans out. But I keep coming back (if only he played for the Patriots, ahhh). I could go on and on, but the point is in my 10 years in my primary league, I have a winning percentage of.... .363. Even the Tampa Bay Rays went to the World Series, when can I catch a break?
Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result each time. This year I prepared different, drafted different, and am taking a different approach to in-season moves. Call me crazy, but I have a feeling this year will be different.
I'll be posting my thoughts, reactions, predictions, complaints, and trash talk here, along with suggestions and tips. I know my stuff, things just haven't worked out.
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